Why do conservative MPs save parliament?

When Chloe Smith first won the seat of Norwich North in a by-election in 2009, David Cameron described the result as “historic”.

The 16.5-point swing in Smith’s favor was a sign of the times for both a resurgent Conservative Party and an increasingly beleaguered Gordon Brown. The victory went down in the annals of Conservative folklore as a key indication that the party was on its way back into government.

Winner Chloe Smith after winning back Norwich North for the Conservatives in 2009

During his 13 years as a deputy, Smith held an overwhelming majority in the government. But at 40, few would have guessed Smith’s race was over. In fact, many on the right have a very high regard for the experienced minister who briefly served as Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Truss.

However, as a former cabinet minister who has already reached the pinnacle of politics, what is left for Smith to do? And if you’re a recent breast cancer survivor and have two young children, is another term really going to be worth the burdensome personal politics?

Moreover, since 1983, Norwich North has been one of those interesting “indicators” that always votes for the current government. In 1997 this changed to Labor and in 2009 to Smith and Cameron.

By leaving on her own terms, Smith can now avoid the humiliation of standing in line on election night as her political opponents cheer and her job changes hands.

Nobody wants to be Michael Portillo, Ed Balls or Nick Clegg.

William Regg MP for Hazel Grove

• Age: 34
• Member of Parliament since: 2015
• 2019 Majority: 4423
• 2024 swing needed for Conservatives to lose: 5% (for Lib Dems)

Since winning the Liberal Democrat seat of Hazel Grove in 2015, William Regg has been a very independent voice on the backbenches.

William Wragg was just 27 when he was first elected as the MP for Hazel Grove

Outspoken about Brexit and adjustment rules, Regg clearly called for Boris Johnson to resign seven months before it became fashionable.

As vice-chairman of the 1922 Conservative backbench committee and chairman of the Select Committee on Government and Constitutional Affairs, Rugg is an experienced and highly respected political operator. He also openly suggested that he does not aspire to a ministerial post, which is a rarity in modern politics.

Unlike Smith, Regg’s main challenge in his constituency of Hazel Grove comes from the Lib Dems. In the 2019 election, Regg defeated candidate Lisa Smart for a third consecutive term by 4,423 votes.

Regg’s decision to retire at the age of 34 may have been due to the fact that he sensed a change in the political mood of Hazel Grove. 2024 could be fourth time lucky for Smart and the Lib Dems.

Dehena Davison, MP for Bishop Auckland

• Age: 29
• Member of Parliament since: 2019
• 2019 Majority: 7,962
• 2024 swing needed for Conservatives to lose: 8.9% (to Labour)

Rising star Dehenna Davison’s decision to step down has come as a major shock to both the Conservative Party and British politics in general.

A working-class, Northerner and pro-Brexit, Davison symbolized the new Conservative coalition that delivered a stunning victory for Johnson in the 2019 general election. She was thought to be settling well into her role as Minister of Advancement, a position she received under Tras and retained under Sunak. It is very unusual for a recently appointed minister to leave politics.

Dehenna Davison Named ‘Tik Tok MP’

On paper, Bishop Auckland is a safer constituency than Norwich North and Hazel Grove – in the 2019 election, Davison won a Conservative majority of 7,962. However, the specific political contexts of Red Wall mean that victory in 2024 is far from guaranteed.

Davison entered parliament in 2019, flipping the seat from Labour. But recent polls show that Labor has turned its fortunes around in Redwall and is set to win back many seats, including Bishop Auckland.

Davison is only 29 and could be back at the next general election, for Bishop Auckland or potentially elsewhere. But for now, the loss of the Red Wall poster girl will be seen as a major loss in Conservative Party circles.

Chris Skidmore MP for Kingswood

• Age: 41 years
• Member of Parliament since: 2010
• 2019 Majority: 11,220
• 2024 swing needed to lose Conservatives: 11.4%

Chris Skidmore caused a sensation when he was elected MP for Kingswood in 2010 as the author of the infamous tract Britain is liberated (2012). However, unlike his co-authors Liz Truss, Dominic Raab, Kwasi Kwartenga and Priti Patel, this statement of ideological ambition never translated into high public office.

Instead, he is a former science minister and current chair of the ongoing review of the net zero strategy.

Chris Skidmore is leading the government’s Zero Review

Recent boundary revisions will mean that the Skidmore Kingswood constituency in Gloucestershire will cease to exist after the next election. But rather than fight for a neighboring constituency or a safe seat elsewhere, which would have been common practice in the circumstances, Skidmore decided to resign.

One wonders if Skidmore, just 41, would have decided differently if the Conservative government was on its way to a fourth term in office.

Under such circumstances, his position as a pure tsar in the government could certainly lead to an important role as a minister.

But Skidmore seems to think he can better contribute to the battle for Zero outside parliament than, say, in opposition as shadow secretary of state for environment, food and countryside or as chair of a select committee .

2024 and beyond…

The fact that a number of prominent Conservative MPs have decided to stand down at the next election, and more are expected to follow, creates several practical and political problems.

First, the Conservative Party will want candidates with established personal appeals and good electoral knowledge in this difficult 2024 campaign. Marginals like Hazel Grove and Norwich North will be even harder to defend with unproven, unknown candidates.

Second, whatever the outcome of the next election, the Conservative Party will want to retain key parliamentary talent. That young MPs such as Chloe Smith, William Wragg, Dehenna Davison and Chris Skidmore have decided to stand down is a major blow.

But above all, the public will see the exodus of Conservative MPs as part of the natural end of more than a decade of Conservative rule. The public perception that the Conservative Party is tired and needs some time in opposition will only be reinforced by former ministers essentially admitting this by standing down.

So the Parliamentary Conservative Party could look very different in 2024. It will be interesting to watch the political and ideological implications of this game in real time.