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Week in Review: Signs of Life for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives?

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The 1992 and 2015 general elections have had a profound effect on the collective psyche of Conservative MPs and apparatchiks since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister. But with all the polls predicting impending electoral misery, these contests probably had as much to do with morale as their position as potential stars for a future resurgence.

Still, a better-than-expected local election would give Sunak’s comeback narrative a much-needed marker — one by which to measure and extrapolate the party’s political prospects. Collective wisdom suggests that with the Prime Minister recently enjoying a honeymoon period, now was the time to show progress on the ground.

But what happened is, by most standards, a pastiche. The ballots counted so far indicate that the Conservatives, far from the results of 1992 and 2015, are heading for an electoral decline.

Things could change between now and the general election expected in 2024; but the main thing for the prime minister is that such changes must be big – and come quickly. While there are always a few trends at play on local election day, it’s more obvious than ever that Rishi Sunak is running out of time in his bid for 1992 2.0.

Since entering the 10th seat in October, Rishi Sunak has made haste to become Prime Minister. The oddity of how he ended up in Number 10, defined by the terms of Liz Truss’s defenestration, meant that his job was never easy. Today, however, the out-of-control corkscrew of 2022 has largely stopped — and having devoted recent months to policy areas that his predecessors either squandered or abandoned, most notably Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol, Sunak created an impression of momentum.

But Sunak has been serving as prime minister for six months now, and his to-do list remains complex. As for the economy and the NHS, key indicators do not suggest a significant change in the near term.

And Sunak, perhaps, is not only fighting against the clock, but also changing political currents. While conclusions from this election should be drawn with caution, one trend that is getting some attention today is the Leave the Vote movement, once a stronghold of Labor at home.

After leaving Labour’s totemic electoral stronghold in the arms of Boris Johnson in 2019, Sir Keir now appears to be making headway in Red Wall and in areas such as Hartlepool and Stoke-on-Trent in particular. This, correlated with the reversal of the “Corbyn effect”, could lead to a return of Labor voters in working-class constituencies in 2024.

But it is not yet a total victory for Sir Keir – and not a total misery for the Prime Minister. In fact, in some parts of Redwall, notably Dudley and Sandwell, the Conservatives may have actually performed better than expected.

In Dudley, while Labor made two gains, the Conservatives remained in overall control with 44 councilors – just one defeat. In Sandwell, the Conservatives surged from 10 to 12 councillors, although Labor remained in overall control. And in Walsall, the Conservatives won 38 councillors, while Labor won just one technical victory in Darlaston South, which was represented by an independent defector.

These results mean that there are at least some signs of life for the Conservative Party in the Red Wall and potential glimmers of hope for MPs who fear for their jobs ahead of 2024. Moreover, the fact that there are some signs of progress even in the current the complex circumstances raise the question of how things will look in 2024, if Sunac can actually move some of the key economic indicators.

Again, however, turning the successes at Sandwell and Dudley into a full-fledged defense of the Red Wall during the election campaign may require more time and resources than Sunak and CCHQ can afford. For what may ultimately be even worse news for the Prime Minister is the other half of the Conservative Party’s election victory: the less totemic, perhaps, but no less significant, Blue Wall.

In predominantly affluent suburban areas in the south of England, Lib Dem leader Ed Davey hailed “groundbreaking results” after defeating the Conservatives to take control of Windsor and Maidenhead council, Theresa May’s home area. Across England, the party won almost 153 seats.

Still, in a sign of Sunak’s strong position in his parliamentary party, it is telling that the post-election sniper attack was somewhat isolated. Of course, there could be some tests in the coming weeks as the Conservative Democratic Organization (CDO), formed by supporters of Boris Johnson, prepares for a conference in Bournemouth on May 13. But the party’s response after the local conflict, the election is likely to be business as usual, with Sunak stressing the importance of unity and moving forward with announcements of his “five priorities”.

Privately, the Prime Minister will also stress in the coming days that Sir Keir Starmer’s double-digit lead in the polls has failed to translate directly to the ballot box.

BBC forecasts for the share of the vote in local elections show the Conservatives at 26 per cent (meaning they avoided a return to their previous record low share of 25 per cent at the 2013 local elections) and Labor at 35 per cent. Of course, two years after the 2013 local elections, the Conservatives won the general election.

The same BBC model puts the Lib Dems at 20 per cent – a very strong figure for the party. This may mean that even as the electorate protests against the conservative psychodrama of 2022, it is not entirely sure what should happen next.

Thus, although there are few reasons to be happy for the Prime Minister, they are there. After Thursday’s results, the conservative end-of-day clock may not be midnight yet.

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