Opinion | British Tories expect defeat in the elections
A a recent survey shows the Labor candidate ahead in Selby and Ainsty, where Adams won more than 60 per cent of the vote in 2019. In Somerton and Frome, the centrist Lib Dem candidate appears to have a strong chance preferred. “My main expectation is that we will lose all three,” a conservative lawmaker told BBC.
Obviously, this is not guaranteed. When I spoke to Joshua Simons, head of Labor Together, a think tank close to the Labor leadership, he suggested that the Conservatives were strategically exaggerating their pessimism to lower expectations. However, it is widely believed that with national elections due in the next 18 months, the Conservative Party is falling apart. “We are set for a massive defeat,” shouted A title in The Financial Times, citing a former Tory cabinet minister.
Britain’s conservative collapse looks particularly stark when contrasted with the rise of the right in much of the rest of Europe. In Italy, the prime minister is from a party with fascist roots. Far-right Vox could be part of Spain’s next government. Sweden and Finland have right-wing governments. Conservatives have just won a second term in Greece. The last French election was a contest between the center-right Emmanuel Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen, and although Le Pen lost, she seems get support as a result of the recent riots. Even in Germany, where Holocaust shame once seemed to inoculate the nation against right-wing extremism, the reactionary Alternative for Germany just won its first mayoral election, and in recent survey it was the second most popular party in the country.
Yet in Britain the right appears to be in something of a free fall, with a a recent survey showing Labor with a 21 point lead nationally. This is quite a turnaround considering that until recently the Tories were often described as the most successful political party in the world. Less than four years ago, the party won its fourth national election in a row by a stunning margin, decimating Labour, then led by left-wing Jeremy Corbyn. “It was catastrophic,” Reid said. “It was really questionable whether the Labor Party could survive.” The 2021 New Republic article was with subtitles“How the Tories Became Invincible”.
It would be nice to inform someone who wants to see social democracy flourish that Labor has since discovered a brilliant strategy for defeating the right. However, in truth, as the Conservative hegemony in Britain begins to crumble, the Tories deserve more credit for both their disintegration and their mismanagement.
