‘Even holding on to one would be a victory’: Tories brace for by-election results | By-elections

The Conservatives are bracing for a painful by-election on Thursday that could be a damning verdict on Rishi Sunak’s ability to win a broad enough coalition of voters in the next election to retain his party’s majority.

The party could lose all three constituencies, each with significantly different demographics that the Tories need to win, with the prospect of hanging on to just one, which senior ministers are touting as a win.

Tory party insiders said that even if they succeeded stick to Selby and Einstiwhich has a majority of 20,000 votes, a huge shift to Labor in the leader’s seat could signal that a general election is upon us.

However, keeping this constituency – even with a significantly reduced majority – or Boris Johnson ex Uxbridge and South Ruislip might give them hope that Sunak can pull it off next year. One cabinet minister said: “Let’s be honest, even holding on to one would be a victory for us.”

Desperate Tory MPs have warned the Government could be in “its death throes” as thousands of voters across Somerset, west London and the north Yorkshire smashed them at the polling stations.

By-elections in Somerton and Frome an opportunity for the Liberal Democrats win the seat from the Conservatives, with some in Ed Davey’s party seeing victory there as a near certainty. Neither Sunak nor Labor leader Keir Starmer visited the constituency.

In a video clip during the visit of Warwickshire, Sunak refused to rule out an immediate reshuffle after days of speculation he could reshuffle his best team to try to reset the narrative after an expected run of poor results.

His spokesman said the by-election was “very difficult” for incumbent governments in what appeared to be an exercise in managing expectations. “The election we focus on the most is the general election,” she added.

In an attempt to boost the party’s morale ahead of polling day, Sunack addressed Tory MPs at a 1922 back committee meeting. Afterward, one MP, Jonathan Gallis, said the prime minister appeared to accept the by-election would be an “uphill battle” and called on them to help get the Conservatives out the vote.

During a closed-door meeting of Tory MPs, it was claimed Sunak had joked about his private pool. Several in attendance said he was looking forward to using it over the summer — but that plunge into the deep end might seem too much like a day job.

The prime minister did not mention whether a cabinet reshuffle could happen as early as this Friday, following intense speculation – including to the outgoing Minister of Defense, Ben Wallace. A No 10 source dismissed Wallace’s comments, saying: “I don’t think Cabinet ministers are being told when the reshuffle is going to happen.”

James Cleverley also made an unusual public appeal for Sunak to retain his role in the next reshuffle. The secretary of state told the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday that he would be pulled out of the job with only “nail marks on the floor” after speculation he could be moved to defender to replace Wallace.

In a major departure from normal ministerial practice of not commenting on reshuffles, Cleverley told an American conference: “If anyone in Britain is watching, listening, especially your Prime Minister, I’m very keen to stay put … I’m very keen to stay put as Foreign Secretary.” It’s a job I love, I think it’s an important job.”

He added: “It’s a job I know, a job I like to think I’m good at and a job I absolutely love. So my plan is to stay put. If I ever get pulled out in the future, you’ll see nail marks on the parquet in my office.’

Labor sources said it would be “extraordinary” for the party to overturn the Conservatives’ huge majority in Selby, which would require a 17.9% swing, which would be more than Tony Blair’s 1997 election.

They said there was a “narrow path” to such a victory if the Tory vote was depressed and turnout low. Party officials used the campaign to gather data ahead of redistricting during the election, which would create a seat that is theoretically more winnable.

There is frayed nerves in both camps over the west London seat of Uxbridge, which Labor did not even win in 1997 and where the Tories have a majority of 7,000 votes.

One Labor member said: “I go through days when I think we’re doomed and then days when I think we’re really going to do it. But it’s going to be close, and I don’t think it’s going to be a big win for either side.”

The Tories have focused on Ultra Low Emission Zone policy London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who is unpopular locally, but some party insiders believe the issue is being exaggerated and voters are more concerned about the cost of living than the Conservatives can blame.

They could also be hit by what one senior Tory MP, Steve Bryan, called the “long Boris” effect, with voters punishing the government in Uxbridge amid anger over the scandal-plagued former prime minister. The pattern could be repeated at Selby, where Nigel Adams, a close associate of Johnson, has just vacated the seat.

Taking either of those seats would be a boost for Starmer after a difficult week in which he has been challenged by his own party for refusing to make any unreasonable spending commitments, including lifting the two-child benefit cap. The lack of progress will lead to further questions about his strategy.

The by-election comes at a time when the prime minister’s approval rating has fallen to an all-time low, with only a quarter of Britons polled by YouGov having a favorable view of Sunak, and two-thirds unfavorably. His net approval rating fell to minus 40, the lowest level since he took office, the polling company said.

Losing all three seats would make Sunak the first prime minister since Labour’s Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three by-elections on the same day. He faces the prospect of two more difficult by-elections in Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth, to be held by Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher respectively later in the year.