By-elections in Britain: one win and two defeats for the Tories

Britain’s ruling Conservative Party suffered a crushing defeat in the battle for what were two safe parliamentary seats but narrowly lost a third contest in the results early on Friday for after-elections seen as a critical test of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s popularity.

The small centrist Liberal Democrat party won a landslide victory in the Somerton and Frome constituency in southwest England, overturning a large Tory majority. The Liberal Democrats got 21,187 votes, the Conservatives got 10,790.

The main opposition Labor Party also won in Selby and Ainsty, in Yorkshire in northern England, in one of its biggest by-election victories, overturning the Conservatives’ large majority with 16,456 votes to the Tories’ 12,295.

But there was better news for Mr Sunak in Uxbridge and South Ruslip, on the north-west outskirts of London, where his Conservatives narrowly held on against Labor in a constituency represented by former prime minister Boris Johnson. There, the final number was 13,965 people votes for Steve Tuckwell of the Conservative Party and 13,470 for Labour’s Danny Bills.

By-elections are held when a seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant between general elections. In the British system, each elected MP represents a constituency, so when they stand down, those constituents decide who replaces them.

The vote took place on Thursday, and for Mr Sunac the by-election was a possible harbinger of a general election he must call by January 2025.

As the election took place in very different parts of England, it provided an unusual snapshot of public opinion ahead of the general election. They also identified several trends in British politics since the last general election in 2019, when Mr Johnson’s Conservative Party won a landslide victory.

Uxbridge and South Ruslip is the seat that Labor needed to win to prove that they were indeed getting closer to power. The winning Conservative candidate, Mr Tuckwell, blamed the refusal to do so on public anger at London Mayor Sadiq Khan, a Labor member, over his plans to extend the expensive ultra-low emission zone to all parts of London, including Uxbridge.

While the result may raise some questions about Labour’s ability to win the next general election, the scale of the defeat in Somerton and Frome is likely to alarm Conservative lawmakers who are under pressure in some of the party’s heartland constituencies in southern England.

Defeats in Selby and Ainstie were also a major blow to the Tories in a very different part of the country and will boost Labor spirits.

With Britain gripped by high inflation, a stagnant economy and widespread labor unrest, its Conservatives face the real threat of being ousted from power for the first time in 14 years.

While Britain shares some of these economic problems with other countries after the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Conservatives have compounded the problems through policy missteps and political upheaval that peaked during the short, turbulent tenure of Mr Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss.

She proposed massive but unsubstantiated tax cuts alarmed the financial markets and provoked her own downfall after 44 days in office. Mr Sunak has set aside Ms Truss’s agenda and restored Britain’s financial stability. But her legacy was a poisoned chalice for Mr Sunak and his Tory compatriots with much of the British electorate.

“The Liz Truss episode has really undermined their reputation for economic competence, and it will be very difficult to get it back,” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “It’s going to be very difficult.”

Labour’s lead in opinion polls is so strong that some analysts predicted in advance that Mr Sunak would become the first prime minister to lose three so-called by-elections on the same day since 1968.

But narrow Conservative wins in Uxbridge and South Ruslip have dismissed that prospect. There, when all the votes were counted, the final tally was 13,965 for Steve Tuckwell of the Conservative Party and 13,470 for Labour’s Danny Bills.

By-elections are held when a seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant between general elections. This time, the contests were also a reminder of the toxic legacy of another of Mr. Sunak’s predecessors, Mr. Johnson.

Mr. Johnson resigned his seat in the borough of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, in west London, after lawmakers ruled he had lied to parliament about lockdown-breaking parties held in Downing Street during the pandemic.

Voters in Selby and Ainst in northern England were choosing a replacement for one of Mr Johnson’s closest allies, Nigel Adams, who quit after he was not given the seat in the House of Lords he had hoped for.

The contest in Somerton and Frome, a rural county in southwest England, comes as another Conservative MP, David Warburton, gave up his seat after admitting to using cocaine.

“This is probably the closing chapter of the story of Boris Johnson’s influence on British politics,” said Robert Hayward, a polling expert who is also a Conservative member of the House of Lords. But he added: “Whether it closes the whole book is another matter.”

In Selby and Ainst, a Tory stronghold, Labor hoped to show it had regained the trust of voters in the north and midlands of England, regions it once dominated but lost to the Tories in the 2019 election.

The vote in Somerton and Frome will test the fortunes of the Conservative Party in its heartlands of southern England, known as the “blue wall” – after the campaign’s colours. In the region, it was under pressure from a resurgence of smaller, centrist Liberal Democrats.

The Lib Dems have benefited from some anti-Conservative voters, giving their votes strategically to whoever appears best able to defeat the Tory candidate.

The recent UK election featured talk of a major political realignment, with candidates emphasizing values ​​and cultural issues. But analysts say the by-election has been dominated by the cost-of-living crisis – a kitchen-table problem that is hurting the Conservatives after more than a decade in power.