After 2 years of war, many questions arise whether Kyiv will be able to withstand the struggle with Russia

The future looks bleak for war-weary Ukraine: it is experiencing a shortage of soldiers and ammunition, as well as doubts about the delivery of Western aid. Ukrainian forces are also facing a Russian an adversary who has recently seized the initiative on the battlefield.

Two years after a full-scale Russian invasion took over nearly a quarter of the country's territory, the stakes couldn't be higher for Kyiv. After a string of victories in the first year of the war, fortunes turned to the Ukrainian military, who dug in, outgunned and outnumbered them against a more powerful opponent.

As the war enters its third year, here's a look at the situation on the ground, the challenges ahead and some of the possible consequences if Ukraine doesn't get the men, ammunition and aid it needs to sustain the fight.

WHAT IS THE STATE?

The triumphs turned into exhaustion of Ukraine along the winding front line in the east of the country. With Russia gaining ground, deficits mounting, and a major military realignment still fresh, there are many questions about whether Kyiv can keep going.

“To date, neither side has won. Neither side lost. Neither side is going to give up. And both sides practically exhausted the manpower and equipment with which they started the war,” said the general. Richard Barronsa British military officer who co-chairs the defense consultancy.

Ukraine has suffered setbacks after a long-awaited summer counteroffensive failed to produce any breakthroughs. In autumn, the armed forces moved to a defensive position in order to repulse Moscow's new offensive.

On February 17, Russian troops took control of the town of Avdeivka, where the Kiev troops were under constant fire, and the Russians were approaching from three sides. Ukrainian commanders complained for weeks about the lack of personnel and ammunition. It was Russia's biggest military victory since the Battle of Bakhmut, and it confirmed that Moscow's offensive was gaining momentum.

Away from the battlefield, Ukraine has proven successful in the Black Sea, where it has used long-range weapons to strike military targets in Crimea and naval drones to sink Russian warships. Ukraine disabled a third of the Black Sea Fleet, the Atlantic Council reports.

Ukraine is seeking to acquire more long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian-occupied territory, a move some European countries fear could trigger an escalation from Moscow.

HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED?

Both Russia and Ukraine tried to keep the numbers of victims a secret.

Since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, few details have emerged about the deaths of Ukrainian servicemen. But it is clear that tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians were killed.

In 2023, the first independent statistical analysis of Russia's war dead concluded that nearly 50,000 Russian men had died in the war. Two independent Russian media outlets, Mediazone and Meduza, partnered with a data mining specialist from the University of Tübingen in Germany to analyze Russian government data.

WHAT HAPPENS IF UKRAINE CANNOT FIND MORE TROOPS?

Without more troops, Ukraine's defense lines will be overstretched and more vulnerable to Russian attacks, especially if Moscow launches intense multi-pronged assaults along the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line.

According to the legislators, in the Ukrainian military, the average shortage of personnel in brigades is 25%. Military leaders cannot give soldiers enough rest, and Russia has recently increased the pace of its attacks. As a result, soldiers become fatigued—and injured more easily—exacerbating the effects of the shortage.

The military command of Ukraine said that for the next stage of the war, an additional 450,000 to 500,000 recruits are needed. Even if Ukraine succeeds in mobilizing such a number, which is unlikely, it will still not be able to match the size of the workforce of Russia, whose population is three times that of Ukraine.

Lawmakers have spent months mulling over a controversial proposal to increase the conscription fund as many Ukrainian men continue to flee the war in Ukrainian cities.

Commanders say they don't have enough men to dig trenches and conduct offensive operations. The shortage has also forced them to change tactics and focus on keeping the soldiers they have alive, sometimes at the expense of holding territory.

WHAT ABOUT WEAPONS AND AMMUNITION?

If they continue, ammunition shortages will jeopardize Ukraine's ability to hold territory and survive soldiers.

Military leaders appear to be rationing shells, sending trickles of munitions to firing positions to maintain supplies, while promises of more ammunition from Western allies have gone unfulfilled. The European Union has not fulfilled its promise to deliver 1 million rounds of ammunition by the beginning of the year, delivering only a few hundred thousand.

At the same time, Russia is mobilizing its defense industry and could soon produce 5,000 artillery shells a day, Barons said. Ukraine is increasing its own production of weapons, but in the short term it will not be able to compare with Moscow in terms of scale.

Military commanders have been complaining for months about a shortage of ammunition for infantry fighting vehicles, machine guns, artillery and rocket launchers. This shortage has become particularly acute by the end of 2023, with some artillery commanders saying they can meet only 10% of ammunition needs.

Commanders say that particularly long-range artillery serves two important purposes: First, it acts as a protective umbrella to cover infantry, allowing them to hold territory and prepare for offensive operations. Second, by striking Russian troops and heavy weapons from afar, artillery prevents planned assaults, seriously impairing Moscow's capabilities.

Without this, Ukraine will increasingly come under the pressure of incessant Russian artillery fire. Commanders say their soldiers have no choice but to dig in deeper to hold their ground.

IS WESTERN SUPPORT BEING DONE, AND WHAT IF IT IS?

Ukraine relies on Western allies and international organizations not only in terms of military aid, but also in terms of financial and humanitarian aid.

Without Western aid, Ukraine would not have the weapons, ammunition and training needed to sustain military operations, nor would it be able to keep its shattered economy afloat or reach Ukrainians caught in the crossfire of the battles.

Despite disagreements over the future of EU aid and $60 billion in military aid in the United States Congress, Western countries have not been so generous with money this year.

Kyiv breathed a sigh of relief in February when the EU approved the extension of a 50 billion euro ($54 billion) aid package to Ukraine after opposition from Hungary. This money goes to support the economy and rebuild the country, not to the fight against Russia.

But many Ukrainian leaders are waiting for US funding. The funds will allow Ukraine to purchase weapons and equipment from American firms, gain greater access to military training and intelligence sharing, and strengthen air and sea defenses. The money will also be used for direct budget support of Kyiv.

Ukrainian leaders also need help from the West to cover the salaries of civil servants and health workers.

On the humanitarian side, the United Nations and its partner agencies said that if the call for new funding of $3.1 billion per year is not met, the UN will not be able to meet the basic needs of the 8.5 million Ukrainians living on front line. .

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Associated Press writer Danica Kirk in London contributed to this report.